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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/17 11:05

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Broadly weaker trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow 35 lower. The dollar index is 28 
points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply lower 
with crude down $3.00. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold $1.00 lower.


   Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower with trade giving back the Monday gains in 
turnaround Tuesday action with little fresh bullish news. Weather remains a 
short-term non-issue with warm conditions and wetter weather to the north 
before trending drier. Corn basis should start to see more pressure with 
harvest underway in more areas with the warm weather helping to push things 
along. Ethanol futures are lightly weaker with unleaded down nearly a dime. 
Weekly crop progress showed steady conditions at 55% good to excellent, and 14% 
poor to very poor, 93% in the dough vs. 98% on average, 68% dented vs. 87% on 
average, 18% mature vs 38% on average, and 4% harvested vs. 7% on average. On 
the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger 
band above trade at 3.77. 


   Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower with trade pulling back with little 
fresh bullish news, and trade moving into overbought conditions yesterday. Meal 
is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Crush margins remain 
positive overall with oil doing the heavy lifting early in the week. The 
positive export story needs China coming forward as US export competitiveness 
improves on the world market with active bookings off the PNW the last few days 
with 260,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China. Bean basis remains flat in 
the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws 
closer. Weekly crop progress showed conditions slightly lower at 54% good to 
excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, with 95% setting pods vs. 100% on 
average, and 15% dropping leaves vs. 38% on average. On the November chart we 
are have support at the 10-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.98, 
and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with spillover pressure from the row crops 
and little other fresh news. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 79, pulling 
back from the high end of the range again. The corn/HRW spread is hanging 
around the 36-cent area, starting to widen again. Kansas City wheat is 
competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers 
to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness improving 
again. Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch at 76% complete vs. 93% on 
average. Winter wheat planting was 8% vs. 12% on average. The December Kansas 
City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 3/4, with resistance at the upper 
Bollinger Band at 4.13.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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