DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/17 11:05
All Grains Lower at Midday
Broadly weaker trade at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow 35 lower. The dollar index is 28
points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are sharply lower
with crude down $3.00. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious
metals are weaker with gold $1.00 lower.
Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower with trade giving back the Monday gains in
turnaround Tuesday action with little fresh bullish news. Weather remains a
short-term non-issue with warm conditions and wetter weather to the north
before trending drier. Corn basis should start to see more pressure with
harvest underway in more areas with the warm weather helping to push things
along. Ethanol futures are lightly weaker with unleaded down nearly a dime.
Weekly crop progress showed steady conditions at 55% good to excellent, and 14%
poor to very poor, 93% in the dough vs. 98% on average, 68% dented vs. 87% on
average, 18% mature vs 38% on average, and 4% harvested vs. 7% on average. On
the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger
band above trade at 3.77.
Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower with trade pulling back with little
fresh bullish news, and trade moving into overbought conditions yesterday. Meal
is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Crush margins remain
positive overall with oil doing the heavy lifting early in the week. The
positive export story needs China coming forward as US export competitiveness
improves on the world market with active bookings off the PNW the last few days
with 260,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China. Bean basis remains flat in
the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws
closer. Weekly crop progress showed conditions slightly lower at 54% good to
excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, with 95% setting pods vs. 100% on
average, and 15% dropping leaves vs. 38% on average. On the November chart we
are have support at the 10-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.98,
and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with spillover pressure from the row crops
and little other fresh news. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 79, pulling
back from the high end of the range again. The corn/HRW spread is hanging
around the 36-cent area, starting to widen again. Kansas City wheat is
competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers
to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness improving
again. Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch at 76% complete vs. 93% on
average. Winter wheat planting was 8% vs. 12% on average. The December Kansas
City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 3/4, with resistance at the upper
Bollinger Band at 4.13.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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